Predicting Similarity of Reasoning Traces
During training, each example updates the model parameters through its gradient. Examples with similar gradients induce similar parameter updates and therefore provide largely redundant training signals.
Our key observation is that fine-tuning occurs within a low-rank, relatively flat, and smooth region of the loss landscape, where the loss around the pretrained initialization is well approximated by a near-parabolic geometry. Specifically, we show that loss difference at the pretrained parameters and boundaries of the parabolic basin—corresponding to inflection points where the curvature changes—induces the tightest bound on gradient similarity throughout fine-tuning:
Theorem 3.1 If two examples have similar loss at the extremities of the basin, then their optimization dynamics remain similar across the entire training process. Formal statement
Theorem 3.1
Assume a smooth fine-tuning loss with bounded curvature \(0 \leq c \leq c_H\). Starting from initialization \(\theta_0\), for any checkpoint \(\theta \in \Theta\) during training define \(\epsilon_\theta = \|\theta-\theta_0\|_2\). Assume that fine-tuning gradients are predominantly captured by an \(r\)-dimensional subspace \(V \subset \mathbb{R}^d\) with orthonormal basis \(\{v_1,\ldots,v_r\}\), such that for every training example \(z\), \(\|\operatorname{Proj}_{V^\perp}\nabla L_z(\theta)\| \leq \gamma\). For each basis direction \(v_i\), denote \(c_{H,i} \triangleq c_{H,v_i}\), and let
If any pair of training examples \(z_1,z_2\) have bounded loss difference at all checkpoints \(\theta_{i,1},\theta_{i,2}\):
then for any \(\theta\in\Theta\) during training, the (full-rank) gradient difference is bounded by
To probe the basin, we briefly train a LoRA adapter on a very small subset of reasoning traces to identify its dominant directions. However, the loss landscape is anisotropic: curvature varies substantially across directions, implying that the extent of the near-parabolic region differs from one direction to another.
We perturb the model incrementally along each direction and fit a curve to the resulting loss profile to identify the inflection point where curvature changes sign (Algorithm 1). This gives a boundary checkpoint for each direction.
We evaluate the loss of only the initial 1k reasoning tokens at these perturbed checkpoints to construct a compact loss signature for each example. We then cluster these signatures and select an equal number of examples from each cluster to obtain a diverse subset.